Brits and Americans of South Asian Descent Becoming Expats in India

Two articles on a similar topic came out within a few days of each other!

The NYTimes article is more extensive. The BBC article has some audio you can listen to.

BBC's article "Mumbai - the city of foreign dreams"

NYTimes article "India Calling"

Looks like India is the place to be!

One-Way London to India Journey for Just $311 US Dollars !!!

Here's a cool way to get from London to India for only $311 all-inclusive (one-way), early next year!!! This itinerary uses low cost carriers, and includes a full day to tour Istanbul! Here's the plan:

Abbreviations Used and links to the airlines' websites and airports' wikipedia pages.
U2 -- Easy Jet
J9 -- Jazeera Airways
LGW -- London Gatwick Airport
SAW -- Istanbul Sabiha Gökçen Airport
KWI -- Kuwait International Airport
BOM -- Mumbai Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport

Itinerary:

London to Istanbul 30.99 Pounds on EasyJet

• d. LGW 0745 on U2 flight 5461; 14 Jan 2009
• a. SAW 1335
• spend two nights in Istanbul, allowing some time to tour about Hagia Sophia, go to a hamman, etc.
  

Istanbul to Kuwait 100 Euros on Jazeera Airways

• d. SAW 1100 on J9 flight 479; 16 Jan 2009
• a. KWI 1520

Kuwait to Mumbai 38 Kuwait Dinars on Jazeera Airways

• d. KWI 2150 on J9 flight 606; 16 Jan 2009
• a. BOM 0400 +1

So, according to exchange rates today, here is the math, not including hotel and expenses in Istanbul:

• 30.99 pounds -----> $46
• 100 euros ----------> $125
• 38 dinars ----------> $140
  

Total: $311

All these flights were found on EasyJet and Jazeera's websites today, and includes all taxes, fees, and fuel surcharges. It does not include any checked luggage on EasyJet, which would be extra. Still, it is a wonderful find!

For the more romantic UK to India journey by train, check out the comprehensive info at Mark Smith's fantastic Seat 61 website.

Fight Fear !!! Inspirational Quotation

This was from Sean Econo's flickr photograph of their deskspace! And he got it from here.

Your _______ is not some fragile vase that is going to shatter the second you ________. It is as strong as you decide it is, and your boundaries are where you set them.

Sean Econo liked it because

I thought this bit was an incredibly versatile reminder that we create the parameters for all that we do in our lives, and those parameters can be as fluid as we need and want them to be. A good reminder to ease up on the self-criticism that bounces around in my head.

I'm hoping keeping this quotation in mind will help me get through my schoolwork and toward my dreams.

Thanks Sean Econo!

Google Paddington Bear 50th Birthday Logo =)

Is Paddington off to London or Peru?

I'm disappointed it appears Google doesn't have every logo art piece easily available on their logo archive. Am I not searching in the right place? Luckily, I saved a jpeg on my own, and you can still find it if you search for "google paddington" on other individual sites.

But Google itself doesn't appear to keep a comprehensive history of what specialty logos they used in the past, unless their holiday logos.

Or maybe they just delay it a bit, and if that's the case, I'll be ok with it.

Thanks Paddington, for a world of pleasure your stories provided me as a child! Let's go off to Acton together, from your awesome namesake station! Or, maybe we can head off to Slough!

You make me happy. =)

Inaccurate NYTimes Article?

This New York Times article by Cheryl Jensen is really disappointing to read. I'm almost certain the Civic is the one with a flat floor, not the Corolla. I've bolded the relevant paragraph. The article is available here:

October 5, 2008

Behind the Wheel | 2009 Toyota Corolla

A New Term for the World Leader

By CHERYL JENSEN

STOWE, Vt.

FORGET tawdry profit motives. More than 40 years ago, when Tatsuo Hasegawa was chief engineer for the very first Toyota Corolla, he described his work as a quest “for the welfare and happiness” of the entire world.

Since his original model went on sale in Japan in 1966 — it reached American shores two years later — the Corolla has laid claim to being the planet’s best-selling line of passenger cars. And while Mr. Hasegawa’s admirable goal of worldwide happiness remains elusive, at least the new 10th-generation Corolla can improve the general welfare by conserving fossil fuels.

The Corolla LE achieved 32 m.p.g. over all in Consumer Reports’ real-world tests and 40 m.p.g. on the highway. The magazine called that “among the best gas mileage C.R. has seen in a conventional gasoline-powered car with an automatic transmission.”

I also tested a 2009 Corolla LE, the best-selling version, with the same 1.8-liter 4-cylinder engine and 4-speed automatic transmission. Federal fuel economy estimates are 27 m.p.g. in town, 35 on the highway and 30 combined.

I took the Corolla on a loop through Vermont that included a stretch on Interstate 89 to Burlington, a segment on two-lane roads from South Hero to North Hero on Grand Isle in Lake Champlain, then a twisty-turny drive on Route 108 that included a brisk ascent to Smuggler’s Notch on the way to Stowe. For the trip, which included mountain roads that penalize fuel economy, I averaged slightly less than 38 m.p.g.

Aside from admirable mileage, the new Corolla is a good all-around choice among compact cars, which is not damning it with faint praise.

This is, in a sense, the universal car: With two 4-cylinder engines, five trim levels and a choice of transmissions, there is a Corolla for just about everyone. Prices start at $15,910 (including the $660 delivery charge) for the Standard model with a manual transmission and rise to $19,420 for the XRS.

A 5-speed manual transmission is standard with both engines. Aside from the 4-speed automatic, which is available with the 1.8-liter engine, a 5-speed automatic is offered with the 2.4 engine.

By happenstance, I also had a new Honda Civic test car available for comparison while I was testing the Corolla LE. I also sampled the sportier XRS.

My LE test car started at $16,650, including the automatic. A few options, including electronic stability control ($250), brought the total to $18,453.

At no time during my 350-mile test loop did I feel that the 132-horsepower engine was wimpy or inadequate. Although this engine was used in the previous-generation Corolla, it has been re-engineered and now has variable valve timing “with intelligence,” to improve performance and fuel economy.

The reworking makes for a fairly responsive engine that works well with the 4-speed automatic. But the small engine could benefit from a 5-speed automatic (like the one in the Civic or the Corolla with the larger engine).

This year, for the first time, the Corolla has electric power steering, and the system varies the amount of power assist depending on the speed of the car.

While electric steering has been around a while, a common complaint is that it can feel numb. But that wasn’t the case with the Corolla. My LE had decent road feel, although the steering hardly felt sporty.

Corolla shoppers who want a sportier-feeling car can turn to the XRS, which has the 158-horsepower 2.4-liter engine. Its steering and suspension are tuned differently for more driver engagement. A strut-tower brace connects the front shock towers, giving the XRS a more rigid feel. The tradeoff is a slightly harsher ride.

The Standard, LE and up-level XLE take a more relaxed approach with a suspension that is compliant without being sloppy. But like most front-drive cars, the Corolla can feel nose-heavy on turns, as was the case on some thread-the-needle curves on the way to Smuggler’s Notch.

But here is a refreshing change: this is a redesign that grew very little. The 2009 Corolla is a fraction of an inch longer than the last generation, and an inch lower. It did get wider by 2.5 inches, providing a bit more hip and shoulder room.

The Civic beats the Corolla by a bit in headroom and legroom, except in the rear. The Corolla’s 36.3 inches of rear legroom exceeds the Civic’s 34.6 inches, and the Corolla’s flat floor is more comfortable for passengers stuck in the back. The Corolla has a whopping 16.6 cubic feet of trunk space, while the Civic has only 12.

The Corolla’s rear seatbacks can be folded, but it’s not a one-step process. Because this is a compact car, and the rear seats have head restraints, it is necessary to scoot the front seats forward before flipping down the rear seatbacks. Then the front seats have to be moved back so that you can drive the car. The Civic is the same way, though with its new Fit, Honda found a way for the rear seat to fold no matter how the front seat is set.

While Honda gave the latest Civic an interior that is more youthful-looking and fun, the Corolla’s cabin is quite conventional. It also loses econo-elegance points because it looks as if it were dipped in plastic. The furry seat upholstery in my test car seemed somewhat low-rent.

But interior storage is good, with a number of nooks and crannies to hold the stuff that Americans haul around. There is even a storage bin above the glovebox.

Front, side and head-curtain air bags are all standard, as are active head restraints that move up and forward in a crash to protect against whiplash. Antilock brakes are standard on all models. Stability control, which helps to keep the car from skidding out of control, is standard only on the XRS. It is a stand-alone $250 option on other models.

In crash tests by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration the Corolla received four of five possible stars in front crash protection for both driver and passenger. In the side crash tests, the Corolla got five stars for protecting the driver but only four stars for rear passengers.

In more severe frontal tests by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, the Corolla received the highest rating of “good.”

With its emphasis on safety, practicality and economy, the new Corolla seems more in tune with the times than ever. In 2007, the outgoing model had its best year ever in the United States even though it was the final year in the car’s model cycle. So even in a grim economy the new version should have no trouble building on the Corolla’s total cumulative global sales of 34.4 million.

Clearly this is a car that has satisfied a lot of people. As for bringing about a global state of happiness, at least the Corolla is making an effort.

•

INSIDE TRACK: Something for everyone.

"Commercially Lethargic"

Ayres warns as companies use super crunching to get better and better at determining the maximum price an individual customer is willing to pay, some customers will lose out. He says individuals must do research and calculations more exhaustively on their own, to learn of their maximum price point is higher than others, to avoid being ripped off. On the flip side, Ayres believes when companies use super crunching to improve product quality, then consumers win all around.

Consumers are going to have to engage in a kind of number crunching of their own, creating and comparing datasets of (quality-adjusted_ competitive prices. This is a daunting prospect for people like me who are commercially lethargic by nature. Yet the same digitalization revolution that has catalyzed seller crunching has also been a boon to buy-side analysis. Firms like Farecast.com, E-loan, Priceline, and Realrate.com allow customers to comparison shop more easily . . . For consumers worried about the impace of Super Crunching on price, it is both the best of times and the worst of times (pp 173-174).

Immediately, his "commercially lethargic" phrase resonated with me. It's frustrating to feel like giving up on a transaction because it's "too hard" to complete. Part of it may be perfectionism paralysis. There may also be psychological reasons personal finance is a major procrastination center for me. I hope to alleviate this by:

• being clear on personal objectives for the task
• recognizing when perfectionism appears
  
• giving "permission to be human" when the commercial lethargy sets in and not beating myself up over it or considering myself a bad person because I have those thoughts.

Well, although Ayres describes himself as "commerically lethargic," his books seem to be a commercial success! Also, he did randomized testing to select the more successful title for his work, using Google AdWords, so that seems pretty commercially savvy!

Disappointing Olympics Media Coverage

I was a bit unhappy with the media's Olympic coverage. In past Olympics, I've always wished for more coverage of the lesser athletes. In the qualification for one of the track events, everything was on Tyson Gay, while we learned nothing of Walter Dix, even though he was American too! Well, Walter Dix ended up qualifying for the final, and Tyson Gay didn't qualify--how annoying not to learn anything about Walter!

Not to mention all the competitors from other countries . . . So, we hear about the other nations' athletes if they are big competition for us, and of course that makes for an excited media, with all the China anxiety we have right now.

What really started upsetting me was the tone the media was taking with this ruckus over underage Chinese girl gymnasts. It's difficult to place my finger on it exactly, but it was getting to me for sure. People were making such a big deal about computer graphics assisted fireworks for American television audiences, and how the singing girl was replaced by the prettier one in the opening ceremonies. Well, duh! It was a show and it was meant to impress. Don't you usually try to iron your shirt or do your makeup nicely when you go on a date and want to impress someone? It's the same thing!

Luckily, I randomly caught some Anderson Cooper 360 coverage of the topic, and they interviewed a former gymnast, Amanda Brown. Amanda basically said that if the American girls were drastically better than the Chinese girls and weren't so closely matched in talent, then the underage ruckus would be a non-issue. This sounded spot-on to me! The only record I can find confirming Amanda's sentiments is on a blog dedicated to covering all of the Anderson Cooper 360 shows. Here is the entry
the day Amanda was interviewed. Here's an excerpt from that blog entry:

Of note is former Olympic gymnast Amanda Borden bringing up the fact that probably no one would be talking about this if the US won. It does sort of make it seem like sour grapes, doesn't it? Because the Americans had a fair number of falls and step outs. Then again, I heard of this controversy before last night, so there's that.

I also learned that the age requirement for Olympic competition has not always been the same. It has increased from previously. When Dominique Moceanu competed in the 1996 Atlanta games, she was not 16, because she was born in 1981. The wikipedia article on Age falsification in gymnastics has a history of the age requirements and their changes over the years.

Googling for Dominique, I found quite an extensive page of her thoughts, and some surprising criticism of Marta and Bela Karolyi. When we see Marta as hen mother to the American team in Beijing, and ever enthusiastic Bela sitting next to Bob Costas, we don't imagine they could possibly have darker sides to them. Here is what Dominique has to say on Dominique Moceanu's website. Dominique explains some of her former colleagues disagree with her claims, but here is one thing Dominique says she experienced personally:

In another case, Bela put me on the scale in front of the entire team at the 1995 World Championships. He berated me and belittled me in front of everyone. That kind of treatment is unnecessary. I was 70 pounds!

Moceanu is unhappy with Marta and Bela's selection process for the Olympic teams, believing the process is not transparent enough, and that certain worthy gymnasts were left out:

I think the men's selection is very similar now to the women's. David Sender -- the 2008 National Champion -- was overlooked; Sean Golden -- with amazing performances -- was overlooked; Raj Bhavsar is devastated right now because he was kept off the team again. How do you justify keeping Raj off the team when you say you've crunched the numbers? Can you show us how you crunched the numbers? What kind of hidden system is being used? What has to be so secretive here?

Dominique believes the Karolyi's are worshipped a bit too much, and that many other coaches have pitched in quite a bit to the success of US gymnastics:

I think that we forget that this is the individual coaches like Valeri Liukin and Liang Chow, Peter Zhao and Mihai Brestyan… that they're the principle reason for the success of team USA, not the Karolyi system.

Also, it is important to note that Bela is on the record as believing the age requirement should be abolished, since anyone talented enough to qualify for an Olympic team should be allowed to go. His interview expressing his belief that the Chinese girls were underage, and that there should be no age requirement, was covered by outfits like The Washington Post and Yahoo Sports.

Ok, so mainly I was happy to see Amanda Borden on tv in that interview. She was spot on, and helped me think through figuring out what bothered me about the underage coverage. It also got me on google learning a bit more about Dominique Moceanu, and brought back memories of watching the Atlanta games, which were the last games I really watched before Beijing, as I didn't watch any of the Sydney or Athens games.

I found one other perspective on this Olympics stuff that vibed with me, and here is the video of Jon Stewart's Daily Show on the comedy central website:

Six Thinking Mistakes

Kida's Six Basic Thinking Mistakes:

1. Prefer stories to statistics.
2. Seek to confirm, not to question, our ideas.
3. Rarely appreciate the role of chance and coincidence in shaping events.
4. Sometimes misperceive the world around us.
5. Tend to oversimplify our thinking.
6. Have faulty memories.
   

"Don't Believe Everything You Think" Chapters

1. Weird Beliefs and Pseudoscientific Thinking
2. A Gremlin on My Shoulder
3. Thinking Like a Scientist
4. The Role of Chance and Coincidence
5. Seeing Things That Aren't There
6. Seeing Associations That Aren't There
7. Predicting the Unpredictable
8. Seeking to Confirm
9. How We Simplify
10. Framing and Other Decision Snags
11. Faulty Memories
12. The Influence of Others
    

Seeking Disconfirming Evidence

I need to do this more and this was an eye-opener for me!

Kida's main point was:

"Whatever your belief, find disconfirming evidence, and take that into consideration, because we really on confirming evidence far too much because it is easier for our brains to process"

I've had this belief that gay people for whatever reason end up institutionalized in state hospitals because they cannot manage to make it in this world. My confirming evidences are various people I know that have gone into these places for long term periods. However, perhaps there are successful case as well that don't come to mind because of my bias. David Geffen is a successful example. Am I focusing too much on the outliers?

Pages 164-5 in Chapter 8 "Seeking to Confirm" is where Kida deals with these issues most "Don't Believe Everything You Think."

Reliability of Evidence from Others

Here are some thoughts and questions I have about Kida's last three paragraphs in his "Reliability of Evidence Received from Others" section in Chapter 12 "The Influence of Others"

It's increasingly difficult to make appropriate decisions when we're exposed to a barrage of faulty information. The risk of AIDS for heterosexuals in the United States is a good example. What's your risk of contracting AIDS if you are a non-IV-drug-using heterosexual? In the 1980s we were told by the media: "Research studies now project that one in five heterosexuals could be dead from AIDS at the end of the next three years. That's by 1990. One in five. It is no longer just a gay disease"; "By 1991 one in ten babies may be AIDS victims"; and "The AIDS epidemic is the greatest threat to society, as we know it, ever faced by civilization--more serious than the plagues of past centuries." If we believed these sensational accounts we'd stop having sex altogether (pp 225-6).

Here is Kida's note explaining the media 1980s media quotations:

The quotes are by Oprah Winfrey, USA Today, and a member of the president's AIDS commission, respectively, in M. Fumento, The Myth of Heterosexual AIDS (New York: Basic Books, 1990), pp. 3, 249, 324. Also see Gilovic, How We Know What Isn't So, p. 107.

I definitely want to check these sources out, but isn't it a bit strange Kida's using a secondary source when one could use the Fumento notes to track down the original article from Oprah and USA Today? It's possible Fumento might have imperfect thinking also.

Moving onto Kida's next paragraph:

What happened? News sources played up the accounts of heterosexual transmission, emphasizing that it's a heterosexual disease in Africa and Haiti. They typically failed to note that most heterosexual transmissions involve one partner from a high-risk troup (e.g., gay, bisexual, intravenous drug user, hemophiliacs), and that public health practices in Africa and Haiti are so different from in the United States that they don't tell us much about the risk in the United States. But sensational stories get the ratings (p 226).

I've always wondered how so many girls could get HIV from "straight" guys. If it's statistically more dangerous to be the receptive partner, then how could so many straight guys be passing on the virus if they're only penetrating? Are that many of them sharing needles? I've always suspected more of these guys might be getting penetrated themselves than the governments, studies, and media let on. So my interest was really piqued when I zoned in on Kida's claim "they typically failed to note that most heterosexual transmissions involve one partner from a high-risk troup (e.g., gay, bisexual, intravenous drug user, hemophiliacs) . . ." However, what study or statistics are being used for this claim??? Kida has no note for this line!

Ok, here is the final paragraph of "The reliability of evidence received from others" section in "The Influence of Others" chapter:
So how can we know whether to trust someone's information? Here are some hints. Consider the source. With the AIDS issue, we have to look for the views of epidemiologists who try to understand and predict the spread of infectious diseases--not the views of sex therapists, actors, or talk show hosts. And, keep in mind that reporters can distort the views of the experts. Place more emphasis on past statistics instead of future projections. Even the experts have a hard time predicting future events, as we've seen. Be wary of anecdotal information. News magazines are notorious for reporting the problems of a single person, and since we are storytellers, we pay particular attention to that information. But as noted, personal accounts just don't provide good evidence to base our beliefs upon (p 226).

Again, this seems imprecise. Kida went on at length earlier in the book to explain how predictions are so often wrong, and frequently not much better than chance probability, or even worse, so why does he say we should look toward epidemiologists--what if it is an epidemiologist that falls into the same thinking errors Kida warns against? Admittedly, he also warns against predicting future events in the same paragraph. Plus, there are still stones unturned:

• For the guys who are spreading it to the girls, how can we learn how they got the virus first? Penetrating an infected girl, penetrating an infected guy (well, that doesn't sound very straight to me . . .), sharing needles, getting a blood transfusion, or getting penetrated by an infected guy (well, that's really not straight). What are the statistcs?
  
• If being bisexual or gay is high-risk, what is the statistical risk for being bisexual or gay if they use condoms every time they penetrate or get penetrated? How many people use these condoms all the time?
• If the medical care is so different in these countries, as Kida claims, then how many hemophiliacs or other people needing blood are actually fortunately enough to get a blood transfusion in the first place?
  

Overconfidence in the "Framing and Other Decision Snags" chapter

I'm wrestling with this paragraph, but can't figure out what's bothering me about it.

One reason we're overconfident is we remember the hits and forget the misses--we often remember the times we're successful, and forget the times we fail. It's a bit more complicated, however, because sometimes our failures are our most vivid memories. It turns out that even when we remember our failure, we interpret them in a way that still bolsters our belief. Eileen Langer, a Harvard psychologist, calls it the "Heads I win, tails its chance" phenomenon. As we saw with gamblers' behavior, if we're successful, we think the positive outcome was caused by our knowledge and ability. If we're unsuccessful, we think the negative outcome was caused by something we had no control over. As a result, we reinterpret our failures to be consistent with an overall positive belief in our abilities (p 194)

The line that resonates with me most was "It's a bit more complicated, however, because sometimes our failures are our most vivid memories," but Kida doesn't cite any studies about that aspect.

I understand the phenomenon of attributing success to personal skill, and failure to an outside source. However, aren't there some individuals who consistently believe they will fail and consider all their past to be a completely failure? Does this have something to do with perpetual optimists and pessimists? Just as those overconfident shouldn't believe everything they think, neither should the underconfident or those with low self-esteem do the same. Maybe this paragraph is ok, because it's in the "Overconfidence" section of the "Framing and Other Decision Snags" chapter. Perhaps a corresponding section on "Underconfidence" would be a beneficial addition.

The Langer study Kida refers to is "Heads I Win, Tails It's Chance: The Illusion of Control as a Function of the Sequence of Outcomes in a Purely Chance Task," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 32 (1975): 951.

Narita Airport in the 1970s

Discovered this lovely vintage looking photograph in a book called "Introducing Japan," which has many other nice photos also. Was struck by the realization I've been here, and the space is recognizable, but all the interior furnishings have changed.

I think it was called "New Tokyo International Airport" back then. Look at the awesome clear flight information monitor base, and the awesome standing lamps! Can you imagine a monitor that small fitting all the necessary info these days? It looks really uncongested too, with hardly any folks sitting in those chairs. The element I wish they'd kept most is the soothing striped carpet.

Photo by Goro Iwaoka in:
Introducing Japan by Donald Richie. Tokyo: Kodansha International. 1978. p 10.

ISBN 0-87011-833-1

20/20 Hindsight

In Thomas Kida's "20/20 Hindsight" portion of the Framing and Other Decision Snags chapter in his book, Don't Believe Everything You Think, this paragraph struck me for several reasons. The Paul Gallico revelation was stunning, and "the oppressed ethnic group of that time" reminded me of some conversations I'd had with a friend.

At one time, Jews dominated the game. Basketball was primarily an east-coast, inner-city game from the 1920s to the 1940s, and it was played, for the most part, by the oppressed ethnic group of that time--the Jews. Investigative journalist Jon Entine noted that when Jews dominated basketball, sports writers developed many reasons for their superior play. As he states, "Writers opined that Jews were genetically and culturally built to stand up under the strain and stamina of the hoop game. It was suggested that they had an advantage because short men have better balance and more foot speed. They were also thought to have sharper eyes . . . and it was said they were clever" (Entine Taboo: Why Black Athletes Dominate Sports and Why We Are Afraid to Talk About ItNew York: Public Affairs, 2000 pp 202-203). Paul Gallico, one of the premier sports writers of the 1930s, said the reason basketball appealed to Jews was that "the game places a premium on an alert, scheming mind, flashy trickiness, artful dodging and general amart aleckness" (Shermer,"Blood Sweat and Fears," Skeptic8, no. 1 p 47). Notwithstanding the insulting stereotype, I'm amazed how we think we know the cause for something after the fact--even if that presumed cause is quite absurd.

I discovered Paul Gallico's Mrs. 'Arris Goes to Paris in one of my used bookstore jaunts cutting high school and really enjoyed it. Later on, I picked up Mrs. 'Arris' New York adventures as well. Since I so thoroughly enjoyed these novels, I was caught off guard to learn about his sports writing on Jewish basketball players.

In the discussion with my friend, we were wondering about the stereotype of gay flight attendants. We thought of the long distance pullman trains in earlier america with black porters. There is an exhibit about them--the discrimination, their camaraderie, etc. in Boston's Back Bay Station. At the time, when there was so much discrimination, being a pullman porter was one of the "allowed" jobs for black men, and they gained prestige in their own communities because they could travel and earned a relatively high income with tips etc. Do gay flight attendants have prestige in the gay world as well? I know this might now be the same as Kida's basketball discussion but this is what came to mind.

Beliefs are like posessions

The last paragraph of Thomas Kida's chapter 5 entitled Seeing Things That Aren't there concludes:

As psychologist Robert Abelson has said, our beliefs are like posessions. We buy our possessions because they have some use to us. So it is with our beliefs. We often hold beliefs not because of the evidence for those beliefs, but because they make us feel good. How can we overcome perceptual biases that lead to faulty beliefs? It's difficult, but a good place to start is by asking three questions:

• (1) Do you want this belief to be true?
  
• (2) Do you expect this event to occur? and
  
• (3) Do you think you would perceive things differently without these wants and expectations?
  

If the answer is yes to these questions, you should be very careful in how you interpret your perceptions of the world. (Kida p 117)

This reminds me of my"Once Burned" blog post where Victor Niederhoffer recalls the no longer useful beliefs of some of his family members. The relative held onto the belief, because it protected him from another loss which he'd previously experienced during the depression.

Kida, Thomas Edward. Don't Believe Everything You Think: The 6 Basic Mistakes We Make in Thinking. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books. 2006

Kida cites these two items in his concluding paragraph:

R. Abelson, "Beliefs Are Like Possessions," Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour 16 (1986): 222.

Plous, Scott. The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. McGraw Hill: 1993. (p 21)

Awesome Exit Interview!

Glenn Mitchell's Shear Genius amazing exit interview is the best exit interview I've seen on Bravo since Emmett's on Project Runway Season 3. It starts at the 2:37 countdown mark on Blogging Shear Genius' site.

The one thing that I miss the most is the feeling you get after you know what the challenge is, but before you get started with the challenge. It's just very exciting -- it seems like the world is yours to conquer at that moment. And it's something that really makes you feel alive. That's what I'm gonna miss the most. (Part 2 of Glenn Mitchell's exit interview on Shear Genius Season Two)

You can also watch Part 2 of Glenn's exit interview directly on Bravo's Shear Genius site, but it's not as nice as watching it on the Blogging Shear Genius site link above.

I admire Glenn and her thoughts expressed in this exit interview. Best Wishes Glenn!

Pseudoscience, Skepticism, and Predicting Markets

The "Delphic Oracles and Science" section of Victor Niederhoffer's The Education of a Speculatory offers some good connections between the work of Martin Gardner, Irving Langmuir, and John Wheeler and market forecasters.

Irving Langmuir's Symptoms of Pseudoscience

1) The maximum effect that is observed is produced by a causative agent of barely detectable intensity, and the magnitude of the effect is substantially independent of the intensity of the cause.
2) The effect of a magnitude that remains close to the limit of detectability; or, many measurements are necessary because of the very low statistical significance of the results.
3) [There are] claims of great accuracy.
4) Fantastic theories contrary to experience.
5) Criticisms are met by ad hoc excuses thought up on the spur of the moment (p 77).

Victor Niederhoffer's Symptoms of Pseudoscience in Market Analysis

1) Appeal to authority.
2) An absence of counting.
3) A framing of predictions in a form that cannot be tested.
4) A tautological prediction guaranteed to be true under almost all conceivable circumstances.
5) No allowance for chance variations; any randomly formed groups exposed to varying conditions will show differences in means and variability. But the differences can be due to sampling variation rather than the true effects of the conditions. That's what statistical analysis is about.
6) A paranoid mien.
7) Disregard of alternative explanations.
8) Self-evaluation of accuracy.
9) Retrofitted systems (p 8).

Niederhoffer recommends

Martin Gardner and Christopher Scott in the Oxford Companion to the Mind
Fads and Fallacies in the Name of Science, by Martin Gardner.
Paranormal Phenomena: The Problem of Pro, by

Holding Onto Stagnation or Growth

Victor Niederhoffer hung out with his Grandmother, Birdie, after she'd retired to Florida. In "The Education of a Speculator," he recounts a conversation with her in his "Everyone Retures to the South" short story/mini-section, where Birdie kept stagnating companies and let go of growing ones.

We reminisced about some of Martin's stock market coups: Air Reduction, Allis Chalmers, American Can. These stalwarts of the early 20th century had been bequethed to her and, like most elderly people in this situation, she had sold the ones that were above cost, only to see them quadruple in the next few years, and had retained the ones that were below cost, such as Famous Artists, Four Seasons Nursing, and Levin-Townsend, which eventually sank into bankruptcy. I asked Birdie of Wolfie's should stock up on pastrami or ham. The pastrami moves briskly. Taking that perspective, it's easy to see which stocks to unload and which to hold or buy more of (pp 57-58)

Clinging to past stagnations and abandoning promising growth areas is easy to do in many areas of life, not just stocks and investment. There may be some residual hope that past disappointments can be revived into greatness. Or, an inability to acknowledge that it was a failure. These phenomenon can keep us from moving on to activities with more potential.

Once Burned . . .

In the "Once Burned . . ." short story/mini-section of Victor Niederhoffer's The Education of a Speculator, the Depression's lasting effect on some of Niederhoffer's relatives is explained:

I realized now that men of Martin's generation, who lost everything in the Depression, were traumatized by the vivid memories of their losses. In addition to their focus on the wrong companies, these men suffered from psychological maladies that had even worse consequences for their bank balances. (pp 48)

He goes on to explain how Depression's one-time event detrimentally influenced investing decisions much later on, even though nothing the scale of the Depression's magnitude ever occurred again.

Sometimes, gay people who have been traumatized by bullying in their childhoods truly believe and are terrorized by thoughts of being attacked again as adults. This valid and understandable thinking leads to great obstacles and impairment in everyday living and striving for personal goals.

Hojoki 方丈記

Various books and magazines on small spaces and simplicity have referred to a 12th century essay--An Account of my Hut or The Ten Foot Square Hut. I was finally able to locate a translation to read! It is very short and readable in one sitting.

My question: is this really only ten square feet? That would mean dimensions of 5 feet by 2 feet--like a one person hiking tent! I think 100 square feet is more likely--a ten foot by ten foot square, as Kamo no Chomei describes space for a small Buddhist altar, and a writing table. My bedroom is 10' x 8' or 80 square feet--containing a twin sized bed and small desk and chair.

The hermit-crab chooses a small shell and that is because he well knows the needs of his own body. The fishing-eagle chooses a rough beach because he does not want man's competition. Just as am I. If one knows himself and knows what the world is he will merely wish for quiet and be pleased when he has nothing to grieve about, wanting nothing and caring for nobody.

"The Ten Foot Square Hut" Hojoki 方丈記, attributed to Kamo no ChomeiKamo no Chomei translated by A.L. Sadler.

Play and Records

I've only just started reading Victor Niederhoffer's The Education of a Speculator (New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc.  1997), but he sure does seem to talk about sports a lot.  His parents played tennis during middle winter in a drained swimming pool, which his own young child insisted on practicing with a pan when a raquet wasn't available.  He believes characteristics essential for sports pros are also highly desirable for traders and speculators. 

But, in addition to play, keeping data notes can help one get ahead!

<blockquote>The whole purpose of childhood may be viewed as a window for play.  One beautiful thing about play is that if you have an inquiring mind and keep records, you can learn which techniques carry the day (p 25).</blockquote>

Similarly, here's an item google looks for in their recruiting process, taken from their recent blog entry at: http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2008/07/our-googley-advice-to-students-major-in.html

<blockquote>. . . [Item 1] analytical reasoning. Google is a data-driven, analytic company. When an issue arises or a decision needs to be made, we start with data. That means we can talk about what we know, instead of what we think we know.</blockquote>

So, google thinks data notes are important as well!

How can I apply the data-mining and usage more/better in my own life?

Games

Kazu's thoughts sound just like Eric Berne and Claude Steiner's games! It's like Jane Austen too!

Kazu had the utmost respect for her husband's character, but it was hard for her to see wherein lay the difference between his politics and those she had seen and heard at [her restaurant] the Setsugoan. Her glimpses of Conservative Party politicians at the Setsugoan had inculcated in Kazu a splendid notion of the nature of their work. Politics meant pretending to step out to the men's room and then completely disappearing, forcing a man's back to the wall while cheerfully sharing the same fire, making a show of laughter when one is angry, or flying into a rage when one is not in the least upset, sitting for a long time without saying a word, quietly flicking specks of dust off one's corner sleeve . . . in short, acting very much like a geisha. The exaggerated odor of secrecy clinging to politics confirmed its resemblance to the business of romance; politics and love affairs were in fact as alike as peas in a pod . . . (p 102)

Yukio Mishima. After the Banquet.

Fear of Failure Example

Nathan is describing a self-segregated elite coterie of Hollywood stars gathering separately from the many others present at Coppola's San Francisco house party for Akira Kurosawa.  Nathan wasn't initially part of this group until he got an "in" from Kurosawa due to their earlier conversation in the evening and his Japanese language ability. 

"Nothing came of the time I spent that evening in easy badinage with that celebrated company.  More properly, I never turned it into an opportunity, as each of them might well have done.  Was I afraid of failing in spite of efforts to succeed?  Or was it success itself that caused me to withdraw whenever it was visibly close at hand?  I suspect the latter was, continues to be, closer to the truth."  (p 209)

Nathan is describing the production of Summer Soldiers and the deterioration of his relationship with director Hiroshi Teshigahara, in which they had conflicting visions for the film.  Going through his journal entries from the production period, he notes:

"If there is arrogance in my observations and complaints [about Teshigahara] there is also an abjectness that troubles me.  Striving, and failing, to feel superior, I tumble into despair about myself, which blinds me to what I have achieved and prevents me from finding any pleasure in it."  (p 147)

This is a perfect example of the perfectionism and "all or nothing" phenomenon described by Burka, Yuen, and Ben-Shahar. 

John and Mayumi in Long Island

John Nathan describes an epiphany experienced while chainsawing young trees in Hamptons son at publisher Barney Rosset's new property. I'm sure I've experienced something like this before, as one of the items "in orbit" around someone more powerful in some way. It can be thrilling to feel accepted into their crowd, but unnerving. There is a sense of inferiority--or that you are a plaything or novelty for them . . .

. . . I felt ashamed: Why was I pretending to enjoy his obsessive craziness? The thought led me to a shadowy place. There was a large cast of characters in orbit around Rosset who struck me as ordinary except for some eccentricity that qualified them as offbeat. What if I were the same genus, ingratiating and mediocre? I had experienced the same disquiet with Mishima, though Barney and I were surely closer than Mishima and I had ever been, and it would trouble me again.

(p 111)

Fear of Failure Example

Here's an example of fear of failure from John Nathan's autobiography/memoirs.  It's what Jane Burka and Lenora Yuen mention in their work on procrastination, and what Tal Ben-Shahar mentions in his work. 

Nathan is describing early classes as one of the first foreigners admitted after the war to Todai, Japan's most prestigious university:

"Bihari [from Hungary] regularly interrupted the class to ask for explanations in his heavily accented Japanese.  I envied his freedom from inhibition without understanding it was modesty.  I wanted to be admired for my fluency and spent my time in class in dread of being exposed."

From: Living Carelessly in Tokyo and Elsewhere by John Nathan.  New York: Free Press. 2008.

Willie Suggs

This New York Magazine article on Harlem real estate broker Willie Suggs caputured my imagination.

She bought a house in the early 1980s for $50 000, but collected $1500 in rents every month! And her mortgage payment was cheaper than her own rent at the time! She really saw the value! Bill Greene and Robert Kiyosaki would've been proud of her =). I wonder if opportunities like this still exist . . .

Also, she grew up in Milwaukee, after her family moved up from the South. When I passed through, I thought Milwaukee was an absolutely beautiful town. It is right on the lake, and there is that stunning Santiago Calatrava waterfront art museum. Milwaukee is definitely a place I'd like to live for awhile, and I wonder how it influenced Ms. Suggs.

When queried by the New York magazine reporter "about the argument that blacks as a class have been economically discriminated against—and are therefore being disproportionately pushed out," this was Willie's response:

“Bull crap! That’s bull crap. Nobody stops you from paying 50 cents for the Post, 50 cents for the Daily News, $1.25 for the New York Times. Guess what they have? They have articles on real estate! They have a real-estate pullout section! If you simply read it, you say, ‘Oh, there’s a program. If I take four classes, a total of eight hours in this class, sponsored by Harlem congregational churches, right? I can get up to $70,000 free.’ It’s called a grant. Now, if you had $70,000, do you know what Willie could sell you? We sold a five-and-a-half-room co-op for $90,000. All he needed was $20,000. I’ve been privileged to speak to those classes in the last year, and there are black folks in there, there’s white folks in there, there’s foreign-born people in there. And I’m thinking, Well, why isn’t the class all black? Because a whole bunch of black folks, for whatever reason, just don’t bother to go. So what’s your excuse now? I just told you where you can get $70,000. You don’t need any money!”

Although I suspect I might be intimidated by her (her legal problems and community complaints are detailed in the article), Ms. Suggs is definitely someone I'd like to meet.

"Warning: Habits May Be Good for You"

Sunday's New York Times had an article on "marketers, the masters of creating habits" for things like washing hands and brushing teeth. The context was public handwashing campaigns in Ghana.

The Febreeze campaign for Proctor and Gamble is explained.

This made me think of Tal Ben-Shahar, author of "Happiness" and other publications on positive psychology. Ben-Shahar encourages use of "rituals" (or, habits), which can be created and developed, rather than "self-discipline," which can run out.

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